soma  /  1 Oct 2009, 16:05
Ownage predictions all the way!
So we're 2 weeks into the Ownage Duel Tournament and it's time for some predictions and drama. I guess it would be fair to say that so far not all that much has happened. Lots of games have been played and the amount of WOs given is relatively low, but there haven't really been any big upsets - yet.

Our favourite svenskjävel bps was nice enough to make a graphical bracket prediction for us and I'd like to use this as a basis for my article...

So IF the bracket was to proceed as predicted, this is what I would have to say about a handful of key matches and players:

Locust vs everyone
Quite frankly, I don't think anyone or anything can stop this guy. Unfortunately for us spectators, Reppie and Milton decided not to go through the hassle of playing a tournament. Personally, I always find it a little boring to have players that aren't really "present" in the QuakeWorld scene win stuff, but let's face it: Locust is (along with the two above mentioned players) the best we currently have. Locust has the patience and necessary must-win attitude to win slow, sneaky games, but can also hover through the maps with ease and graze off all spawns with impecable speed. During all this, he has an amazing aim that he can always rely on. If you ask me, there's no stopping this monster.

Bulat vs hlt
While hlt might be the better player in theory, I don't think he will manage to win this one. Perhaps I'm wrong, but hlt doesn't seem to be doing much aside from the occasional 2on2 and the official games with his comrades from Clan MalFunction. And I don't think the lack of practice and enthusiasm will be enough versus the seemingly always-dueling Tatar and ztndm3-death-machine.

LocKtar vs Kingpin
I believe LocKtar should be having a hard time vs Kingpin. Overall, I'm pretty certain that LocKtar is the better dueler, but let's not forget that Kingpin is the one-map-wonder and one of the best Aerowalk players of the QuakeWorld scene. So with Kingpin winning Aerowalk, LocKtar will have to win both other maps. And since Kingpin will also be allowed to drop one map in the decider, this will by no means be easy an task. Throughout the last year or two, LocKtar seems to have changed his playing style from "no bunny, no funny" to something a little more serious, so if all goes well, I'm guessing he will win. But depending on the decider and Kingpin's undebatable spawn-luck (chooo-choooooo, the Whine-Train arriving on platform 6), this might also turn the other way. Beware, Locke!

Murdoc / Avenger vs bps
Now this is something I am very uncertain about. Avenger has proven in the past that he is one of the best duelers in the scene, but what has the guy been doing for the last years? Certainly not playing QW - we would have noticed. Only recently having returned to the QW scene, Avenger will have to get into a decent shape before facing the Dutch Megatron, because being rusty won't be enough. The outcome of this game will also heavily depend on how motivated and ambitious Murdoc will be. Those that have spectated him in a 4on4 game will have seen what a great player he is - and I firmly believe that the only reason Murdoc has never been a big duel star is because he simply never cared about duel in general.
So, in a nutshell: If Avenger manages to shape up before the big game, he will win it. If not, he won't. And if both Murdoc AND Avenger shape up and take it seriously, this might turn into a real thriller.
Whoever wins this will then most likely face bps and be confronted with the same problem over again. Neither "Rusty Avenger, nor "Unambitious Duel-Murdoc" will be able to make it past the Swede. And one of their biggest problems will be that their best maps are also bps' best maps. As far as I know, Avenger's home map is dm4 and Murdoc's home map is Aerowalk. Well... do the math! But all in all, if I had to bet money, I'd put it on Avenger because - despite rustyness - he always managed to get far in duel tournaments and will probably have shaped up by then.

We are aware that this prediction and graphical illustration disregards the fact that there is a Loser's Bracket, but let's not make it overly complicated.

Feedback, your own predictions, opinions, drama and flame are all welcome as usual!

Ownage #2

Ownage #1 (2007) @ QuakeWorld Wiki
Locust @ QuakeWorld Wiki
Bulat @ QuakeWorld Wiki
hlt @ QuakeWorld Wiki
LocKtar @ QuakeWorld Wiki
Kingpin @ QuakeWorld Wiki
Murdoc @ QuakeWorld Wiki
Avenger @ QuakeWorld Wiki
bps @ QuakeWorld Wiki
2009-10-01, 16:15
You're 100% sure Kp will play vs locktar?
2009-10-01, 16:17
Nope, not 100%. But 51% is enough according to probability. ;-)

Edited by soma on 01 Oct 09 @ 17:18CET
2009-10-01, 16:21
what are you talking about!? champion - it's me D
if serious i think, bulat should be in grand final tho..
2009-10-01, 16:23
lol i have to beat riker first :/ and aero is not my homemap snifff
2009-10-01, 16:51
No objections on calling you Megatron though? Niiice.
2009-10-02, 01:08
you write lovely
2009-10-02, 06:08
You can safely gamble all your money, cars, houses on bps in final, really, easiest tip ever. 2nd i'm not sure, maybe it's Lakso or LocKtar. Lakso will beat Locust, because he's a better player for me overall, he playing 5 maps (not 2).
2009-10-02, 09:49
Some weekend press and i will face Locust in the quarterfinal.
2009-10-02, 14:34
xpr: my bet on locust over LocKtar this time is due to the current inactivity/demotivation from LocKtar, while locust is playing more (and better) than ever right now . Lakso doesn't stand a chance against locust, and he actually plays more than two maps. His performances at dm6/ztndm3 is still beyond lakso's skills on the given maps, imo. sorry lappen!
2009-10-02, 17:29
clearly noone believes in me, just the way I want it to be! will be 2ez4sure :E
2009-10-02, 18:42
L0L! hagge is a clear favourite to win vs. me! everyone knows im a one-map-wonder and even on dm6 im just a huge +forward idiot with no brain...still wont change the outcome tho because - as youve predicted correctly - murdoc THE UBER DUELL1ST will pwn both of us.
thanks for the predictions . looking forward to the games!
2009-10-02, 20:38
good. bring the drama!
2009-10-03, 13:16
would be nice to see LocKtar take this home, my old qw friend since HPW days :E

locust vs locktar/avenger probably in grand final

I would like to come top5 so that's kinda my goal 8)
2009-10-03, 13:52
im gonna put down locust down
2009-10-03, 17:00
Get down, get down, and move it all around! Im sorry to disapoint you kingen, men i dont think i have the shape enough to take this tour home, having hard time to even start qw nowdays! But ill try my best, bet on it! =)
2009-10-05, 10:08
The winner will have to face, a directly qualified, Hagge in the ubermegafinal on Hagges localhostserver! All these games dont really matter since Hagge will crush anyone who gets that far!
2009-10-13, 07:39
Neither Bulat, Kingpin, Phrenic or hlt made it through round 3! DRAMARAMA!
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