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Salvation Draft League
2013-01-30, 15:00
Member
17 posts

Registered:
May 2006
Will we get the predictions for the upcoming sunday games? I'm curious what they will be according to the stats.
Especially since I'm missing any updates or previews (like valla did last season)
2013-01-31, 05:48
Member
112 posts

Registered:
Nov 2010
springs: Yes I will post the predictions on Saturday.
2013-01-31, 06:01
Member
112 posts

Registered:
Nov 2010
The rating screenshots have been updated with a bunch of new stats. These new additions are not ratings, they are just 'stats.'

The difference between a rating and a stat (to me at least), is that a rating is a value assigned to a person compare relative performance levels versus another player. So a single rating by itself is useless. A rating of 100 for milton and a rating of 50 for ok98 might imply, for example, that milton is twice as good as ok98.

A stat by itself does have meaning. For example, "average # of quads taken per match" has meaning by itself. While it is nice to compare stats with other players, stats can be difficult to represent skill levels since stats do not take into account the skill level of opponents.

iELO (a derivative of ELO) does take into account skill level of opponents (and teammates!), so it is a better indicator of skill level than stats. Hence the reason why ParadokS has a high iELO even though his team is 0-6.

These are the new stats added to the screenshot:

FPM - Frags per minute
FPM (w/ RL) - Frags per minute while one has an RL
FPM (w/o RL) - Frags per minute while not having an RL
DPM - Deaths per minute
Average High Fragstreak - (per game)
Average Team Damage - (per game)
Average Spawn Kills - (per game)
Average Killed RL - Average # of times you killed an RL per game
Average Killed Quad - Average # of times you killed quad per game
Average Killed Team - Average # of times you killed a teammate per game
Average Quads - Average # times you took quad per game

http://www.quakeworld.nu/forum/topic/5998#92909

SHIFT-refresh to reload the screenshot
2013-02-01, 05:04
Member
112 posts

Registered:
Nov 2010
More stats were added to the screenshot (not ratings):

Since these are STATS and not ratings, players may have results that do not reflect their skill level due to the opponents they play. But it never hurts to look at the stats anyways.

RL Drop % - Out of total # of RLs taken, this is the percentage of them that were dropped.
Kills per RL - For every RL that was acquired, this is the average number of frags
Lives to get RL - Average number of times you had to die before you finally got an RL
Time per RL (s) - Average number of seconds you had RL for each RL taken
Time to get RL (s)- Once you died, this is the average number of seconds before you got another RL
% time with RL - Per game, this is the average time you had an RL
RL vs RL win % - Out of all battles where you have RL and so does enemy, this is the win percentage
RL vs X win % - Out of all battles where you have RL and enemy does not, this is the win percentage
X vs RL win % - Out of all battles where you do not have RL and enemy does, this is the win percentage
X vs X win % - Out of all battles where you do not have RL and neither does enemy, this is the win percentage

http://www.quakeworld.nu/forum/topic/5998#92909

SHIFT-refresh on first post or image to reload the screenshot
2013-02-01, 07:32
News Writer
1267 posts

Registered:
Jun 2007
Thanks for all the work!
You are still missing a few games, bps2-paradoks2 for example.
Chosen
2013-02-02, 06:12
Member
112 posts

Registered:
Nov 2010
Hooraytio wrote:
Thanks for all the work!
You are still missing a few games, bps2-paradoks2 for example.


Thanks, I updated the div2 stats. Just refresh.
2013-02-03, 04:07
Member
112 posts

Registered:
Nov 2010
The Sunday predictions are here!

carapace vs ganon - cara's team should win easily
zero vs bps - zero's team is expected to win, but the games should be close. It might take zero's team 3 attempts
rikoll vs kingpin - another set of semi-close games is expected, but rikoll should come out on top. Might take 3 tries.
milton vs paradoks - According to the ratings, it should be an easy win for milton

NOTE: the 350 frags is just an arbitrary number. iELO only gives predictions for each player's percent of total score, but it does not give total score predictions (different maps have different total scores too). 350 was chosen by me since it seems to be a good approximation of typical 4on4s.

http://www.demolyzer.com/Season3QuarterFinalsPredictions.png
2013-02-04, 06:12
Member
112 posts

Registered:
Nov 2010
The above predictions were 4-0. That puts demolyzer's predictions at 13 for 16 (81%)
2013-02-04, 06:15
Member
112 posts

Registered:
Nov 2010
Updated ratings including the quarterfinals.

(A points system has been added for the daily 4on4 mix games, thus it is left in the screenshot. It really means little for these draft games since there are no participation incentives).


Div1
http://www.demolyzer.com/Season3QuarterfinalsDiv1.png


Div2
http://www.demolyzer.com/Season3QuarterfinalsDiv2.png
2013-02-04, 10:15
Administrator
1021 posts

Registered:
Apr 2006
Bah my scores wen't down even thought we won big, guess its just because I played really bad and had a hard time focusing
2013-02-04, 10:31
Member
187 posts

Registered:
Feb 2011
dgCyanide wrote:
(A points system has been added for the daily 4on4 mix games, thus it is left in the screenshot. It really means little for these draft games since there are no participation incentives).


Highest points in div2 mix games. I will sleep well tonight
2013-02-10, 15:56
Member
112 posts

Registered:
Nov 2010
Sunday Semifinal predictions are here!

zero vs carapace - Expectations are that zero's team should win without too much trouble. But don't underestimate cara's ability to upset
milton vs rikoll - According to iELO, milton's team should have no problem destroying rikoll's team. But, I am a bit skeptical it will be that easy because I recall seeing rikoll's team beat milton in a 4on4 warmup. Anything can happen!

NOTE: the 350 frags is just an arbitrary number. iELO only gives predictions for percent of total score, but it does not give total score predictions (different maps have different total scores too). 350 was chosen by me since it seems to be a good approximation of typical 4on4s.

See this link for information about iELO.

http://www.demolyzer.com/Season3SemiFinalsPredictions.png
2013-02-12, 05:34
Member
112 posts

Registered:
Nov 2010
Updated ratings including the Semifinals.

See this link for information about iELO.

Div1
http://www.demolyzer.com/Season3SemifinalsDiv1.png


Div1 Teams
http://www.demolyzer.com/Season3SemifinalsDiv1teams.png


Div2
http://www.demolyzer.com/Season3SemifinalsDiv2.png


Div2 Teams
http://www.demolyzer.com/Season3SemifinalsDiv2teams.png
2013-02-12, 10:52
News Writer
1267 posts

Registered:
Jun 2007
Looks like you are missing the quarterfinal between bps2 and ganon2, otherwise: good work!
Chosen
2013-02-18, 06:24
Member
112 posts

Registered:
Nov 2010
Thanks Hooraytio, those 3 games are included in total ratings for div2 below.

I provided both ratings for the finals games, as well as the entire season combined.

See this link for information about iELO.

Div1 Finals
http://www.demolyzer.com/Salvation3/Salvation3FinalsDiv1.png


Div2 Finals
http://www.demolyzer.com/Salvation3/Salvation3FinalsDiv2.png




Div1 Season Total
http://www.demolyzer.com/Salvation3/Salvation3TotalsDiv1.png


Div2 Season Total
http://www.demolyzer.com/Salvation3/Salvation3TotalsDiv2.png
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